[Limited adjustments] July USDA report: US soybean data remains unchanged, South American exports are reduced, and Chinese imports are lowered
The US oilseed production in 2021/22 is expected to be 130.5 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous month. The increase in sunflower, peanut and cottonseed production partially offset the decrease in rapeseed production. U.S. soybean production is expected to be 4.4 billion bushels, the same as last month. The June 30 report predicted that the harvested area was 86.7 million acres, the same as last month, but an increase of 4.4 million acres from last year. The soybean yield forecast remains unchanged at 50.8 bushels per acre. Soybean supply and use forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Soybean changes in 2020/21 include declines in imports, crushing and exports. With offsetting changes in supply and use, ending inventory remains unchanged at 135 million bushels. The 2020/21 US soybean season average price is estimated to be US$11.05 per bushel, a reduction of US$0.20, as early sales at lower prices continue to weigh on the season’s average price estimate. The price of soybean meal is expected to be US$395.00 per short ton, a decrease of US$10.00 from the previous month. Soybean oil prices are expected to be 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents.
Compared with the previous month, the global oilseed supply and demand forecast for 2021/22 includes increases in production, exports, crushing volume and ending stocks. Global oilseed production increased by 2.5 million tons to 635.4 million tons. The output of sunflower seeds, rapeseed, cottonseed and peanuts increased, but soybean production declined. Russia's sunflower seed production increased by 2 million tons to 16.5 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the area indicated in the government's planting progress report. Australian rapeseed is produced in favourable early rainfall and higher area. Canada’s rapeseed production has fallen because early droughts affected yields, offsetting the increase in area. Canada's soybean production is also reduced due to the lower area.
In 2021/22, global soybean stocks increased by 1.9 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The increase in stocks in Brazil and Argentina was partially offset by the reduction in China's stocks. These inventory revisions reflect significant changes in Brazil and Argentina in 2020/21, and China's supply and demand balances in 2020/21 and 2021/22. Exports from Brazil and Argentina will decrease in 2020/21 because high prices will reduce shipments to China. In 2020/21 and 2021/22, China's imports will decrease by 2 million tons to 98 million tons and 1 million tons to 102 million tons, respectively. Another notable oilseed change includes Malaysia's 2020/21 palm oil production reduction by 300,000 tons to 18.2 million tons.
